Every now and then Kosovo pops up in the news. It doesn't make sense to most people. The international community and the UN have to decide what to do with the territory, where UN troops have been enforcing peace for the past few years. The Albanians who live in Kosovo claim it and want independence, while the Serbs say that's baloney, Kosovo is theirs. So who's right? And why is this such an issue?
Like all problem in the Balkans, the Kosovo issue is rooted deep in history. This is actually the second time the Serbs and Albanians are trying to persuade foreign powers to give Kosovo to them. The last time it happened was in 1913.
Serbs 1, Albanians 0
After World War I, the international community, then still known as the Great Powers, held a conference in London to decide how to carve up the carcass of the Ottoman Empire. Both the nascent Serbian Kingdom and the Albanians sent delegations to London to lobby intensively for ownership of Kosovo. The Serbs staked their claim on the fact that Kosovo had been theirs before the 500-year-long Turkish occupation, and indicated the countless Serb Orthodox monasteries and churches scattered about Kosovo to prove it.
The Albanians, meanwhile, lobbied on the basis of being the majority, comprising two-thirds of the populace, and having been the dominant resident population for the past several centuries.
The Great Powers, decided to recognize Serbia's claim, or perhaps to reward Christian Serbia for having risen up against the Ottomans while punishing the Muslim Albanians for having remained loyal to Constantinople until the very end, and awarded Kosovo to Serbia.
This decision left the Albanians angry and bitter, but the 1913 conference was, in fact, the last time things went Serbia's way.
Kosovo Gains Autonomy
World War II came to the Balkans, and, since it was the Communist Partisans who kicked the Nazis out, the Kingdom of Serbia gave way to the newly reformed nation of Yugoslavia under a Communist regime, led by Marshall Tito. Tito, who was half-Slovene and half-Croatian, didn't share the Serbs' passion for Kosovo. In fact, lore has it that Tito offered to give Kosovo to Enver Hoxha (the Albanian Communist despot) over a glass of plum brandy. True or not, Hoxha and Tito had a falling out of sorts, and that plan never materialized.
Not long after the war, in 1953, Tito bestowed autonomy on Kosovo, in line with his vision of a multi-ethnic Yugoslav federation coexisting in peace and harmony. This autonomy was gradually increased over the years, until Kosovo was practically on par with the six republics comprising the Yugoslav Federation. This meant that the Kosovar Albanians were in charge, and the Serbs were reduced to a political minority with little say in the running of the province.
The Albanians were clearly getting back in the game.
The Power of the Womb
What happened during the post-war years is even more crucial. The Albanians unleashed their secret weapon, far more potent than any nuclear bomb: the power of the Muslim womb.
From 1931 to 1948, the Albanian population had surged by 40 percent, from 330,000 to 460,000. The Serb population also increased, but only by 33 percent.
In the 1961 census, the Serbs comprised 27 percent of the population. By 1971 this ratio had dropped to 25 percent. Yet the Albanian population growth continued to accelerate, as Albanian women set the record for the highest fertility rate in Europe, clocking in at a staggering 6.66 children per woman.
By 1981, Albanians comprised 84 percent of Kosovo's total population, while the Serbs had dropped to a mere 15 percent. Things were now really going the Albanians' way. The slow growth of the Serb population was slowed even further by the loss of young Serbs who, reluctant to face a future in a backwater dominated by an overwhelming majority of Albanians, emigrated to Serbia Proper or Western Europe.
It was clear that it would take only one more generation for the Serb population to dwindle to nothing, and Kosovo could be claimed by the Albanians without the loss of a single drop of blood.
The Climax That Wasn't
Then Tito died. Suddenly, the Serbs were free to do as they pleased. One of the first things to do, via the hand of strongman Slobodan Milosevic, was to try to keep the Albanians in check, by removing Kosovo's autonomy.
This move backfired, badly, and led to Albanian rioting. The world feared a major war between Serbs and Albanians over Kosovo. Thankfully, calmer Albanian heads -- specifically, Ibrahim Rugova's head -- prevailed. After all, the Albanians only had to wait a few more years.
After several years of distracting events in Bosnia and Croatia, Serb paramilitaries moved into Kosovo in 1999, and started driving the Albanians out. Reacting to the footage on TV, the U.S. bombed Belgrade, and the UN was brought in to watch over an uneasy peace.
For once, the intervention worked, and things were soon back to normal: the Albanians continued to reproduce, and the Serbs continued to emigrate. The Kosovar economy thrived; the Albanians built up a bustling trade in drug smuggling and people trafficking.
Bloodbath Imminent?
Fast forward to the present.
The Serb population, still tiny in comparison to the Albanian majority, is in dire straits, having become entirely isolated from the larger community. Clearly, all the international community needs to do is wait one or two decades until the entire Serb population of Kosovo has been reduced to a lone 85-year-old widow tilling her field, get the UN to declare the monasteries as World Heritage Sites, and give the Albanians the key to Kosovo (in the form of full independence). Serbia, well integrated into the European economy by then, would be unlikely to muster the energy to mount any serious opposition.
But the international community happens to be - in this case - comprised of short-sighted and ill-informed busybodies, and wants to push for final status talks right here, right now. The stupidity of this policy should be self-evident.
The Serbs are still not that well integrated into Europe, and there are still a handful of Serbs left in Kosovo. Moreover, the wounds from the war are still raw, the memory of the humiliating NATO bombings is still fresh, and the news keeps featuring stories of Kosovar Serbs lynched by Albanian mobs. The Serbs are not at all happy about final status talks, which in all likelihood will give Kosovo away to the Albanians.
Not surprising, then, that there is ominous talk in Serbia of "reclaiming the heartland."
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UPDATE: Well, they went ahead declared independence. No war so far, and Kosovo's independence is backed by the US and most of the EU, if few other countries. Whether it lasts depends on how well the ethnic Albanian majority treats the Serb minority.
